We don’t like to make predictions here at CIV.  There are too many people out there throwing out why this team will win that event - we prefer to not get mixed up in all that.  But, after some heated discussion and crunching of the numbers, we felt obligated to make the following prediction regarding the NCAA Tournament.  You might want to sit down for this…

THE IVY LEAGUE IS ONLY A ONE-BID LEAGUE THIS YEAR.

There you have it.  We know this is a bold prediction (which is why it’s in all caps).  But just bear with us for a bit, we think we have the numbers to back up this prediction.

First, there is no team in the Ivy League that is ranked, or even appears in “others  receiving votes.”  Now, we know that the voters’ polls don’t carry much weight for the selection committee, but we felt that must be noted.  You at least need to receive a vote.

The RPI is where the real evidence to back our argument lies.  Right now, the Ivy is ranked 24th in conferences.  That’s right, 24th out of 32 conferences, even behind the Southland and Northeast conferences.  How can anyone possibly say that the Ivy League deserves two bids?  That’s absurd!

But when you dig deeper, our argument gets even stronger.  The top team in the conference right now, Cornell, checks in at 84 in the RPI.  That standing in the RPI is most likely not going to get you in as an at-large.  And that’s for the best team in the conference!  On top of that, since the Ivy does not play a conference tournament, there is no chance for Cornell to win the regular season but another team win the automatic bid.  The only automatic bid is for the regular season winner (looks like it should be Cornell).

When you look at the rest of the conference, we don’t see how some can argue that another team could sneak in on Selection Sunday.  Brown?  This squad is ranked 123 by the RPI and only has a record of 14-8.  Of course, you might look at the fact that Brown is a hot team, having won 5 in a row, or point to its road win at Northwestern in support of the Bears getting a spot in the tourney.  But, we would counter that Northwestern’s RPI is even lower than Brown’s at 213,  and point to Brown’s bad losses to Wagner and by 33 to Notre Dame.  In fact, the highest ranked RPI team Brown has beaten is American at 108.

So, we just don’t see Brown getting that second bid for the Ivy.  Yale?  No, their record is 9-12 overall.  Columbia?  The Lions are struggling at 11-11 overall, despite having won 4 in a row.  Sure, the selection committee likes teams that are playing well at the end of the season, but we think a .500 record out of the Ivy League just won’t get it done.

And we’re not even going to waste your time breaking down the rest of the Ivy, teams all worse than 200 in the RPI.  Seriously, Penn’s biggest win came just this week against Yale, who is 178 in the RPI.  The Quakers certainly cannot be considered for an at-large bid.

So there you have it.  We think we’ve laid out a pretty strong argument that the Ivy is a one-bid league this year, despite what many in the sports world are saying.  We really think the selection committee would have a hard time explaining to USC why it did not get in, but Brown did.  Some will say that would be fair, that school’s like Brown deserve that shot.  But we think the best teams should get in, no matter what conference they are in.

And we just don’t think the Ivy League has two deserving teams this time around.